In order to preserve consistency in the consideration of the possible scenarios of the price movement the numeration of the possible variants remains the same.
USD/CHF, Annual Wave Analysis 2009
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Figure C1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 2.
The wave structure of the accepted global pattern doesn’t rule out that the triple zigzag (or diagonal triangle marked with grey color) is completed. In this case the supposed terminus of the whole pattern may serve as a critical level.
If the supposition is confirmed developing of a corrective wave (b), that may assume any accepted shape may be expected in the next several years .
Figure C2. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3.
At the same time the current correlation of waves [C] of z and [A] of z of the ending wave z of the global triple zigzag (or diagonal triangle marked with grey color) allows to suppose that wave [C] of z may continue developing. In this case the terminus of wave (2) of [C] of z and the beginning of wave [C] of z itself may serve as critical levels.
If the supposition is confirmed the US dollar’s progressive decline will continue and wave [C] of z will reach approximate equality with the first leg of zigzag [A] of z.
Figure C3. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dz.
The most probable scenario from my point of view is somewhere in the middle. Taking into consideration the ongoing economical crisis and the US dollar’s strengthening on the back of the crisis it is logically to suppose further strengthening in 2009 as well.
In this case the ending wave z of the global triple zigzag (or diagonal triangle marked with grey color) may assume the shape of a double/triple zigzag while in the nearest future corrective wave [X] of z. will be developing. Possible scenarios of the development of this wave [X] of z are shown in the following Figures.
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-1.
Figure C5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-2.
Figure C6. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz-3.
The given scenarios of the possible development of the supposed wave [x] though aren’t the only ones but single out the main directions of the supposed price movement and once again underline multi variation of corrections.
As the wave structure of this correction develops the number of its possible variant will decrease that will allow to make the global scenarios more precise and to project possible targets in the monthly forecasts during the current year.
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