Annual Wave Analysis for 2009
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General notes
From the point of view of wave analysis, the main distinctive feature of the FX market, that influences the global wave picture of the currency pairs, is the relative nature of the prices movement. A chart of any currency pair — is a chart of relative strength of one currency against the other. Permanent progressive movement «forward and up», as in the case of a share index, where weak shares are replaced by strong ones, is unlikely here. Most probably cross rates of the main currencies are in the state of permanent global correction, developing a complicated longstanding corrective structure and increasing variation of such wave countings. Inside of this structure one can see different combinations of Elliott wave patterns that allow to analyze the current situation and to forecast further scenario of events.
Besides, the distinctive features of the FX market that influence the inner wave structure of patterns, are its high marginality, the practice of currency interventions and twenty-four-hour conclusion of deals during the working week with changing activity of trading from session to session.
About the current situation on the FX market
In conditions of a developing economical crisis, scenarios with the midterm strengthening of the US dollar are the most preferable.
Thus, the main expected event of 2009 from the point of view of forecasting of the movement of the currency pairs under consideration is the midterm strengthening of the US dollar in the form of a corrective wave structure.
All the main and most probable variants of the price movement of the main currency pairs are considered in the corresponding sections.
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