As you can see in the risk diagram, the maximum risk of this position is merely the net options premium that was paid to create the butterfly spread. If the security is below the strike of the ITM call or above the strike of the OTM call at expiration, the net debit will be lost and the maximum risk will be assumed.
Risk = ITM Call premium - ATM Call premium + OTM Call premium.
Similar to straddles and strangles, the butterfly spread has two breakeven scenarios:
Breakeven *b1 = Lowest Strike + Risk
Breakeven *b2 = Highest Strike - Risk
If the security stays within these two boundaries at expiration, the butterfly spread will be in a profitable position. The butterfly will yield the maximum gain if the security closes at the middle strike price. The will render the short calls worthless and also render the highest strike call worthless as well.
Profit Potential = Middle Strike - Lowest Strike - Risk
How to find a candidate for a Butterfly
Trading Range
Let's review a few criteria that should be considered before putting a butterfly on. First, we want to be able to locate range bound stocks. The trick is to be able to spot a situation in which a volatile stock is getting ready to get range bound. This can often be seen when stocks have tremendous price moves accompanied by a heavy expansion in volume and also by an intra-period reversal. These types of moves are known as "blow-off tops" and tend to provide strong resistance going forward. See our section on candlestick charting reversal patterns to better understand some common reversal setups using candlestick charts. The low point, following the top, is referred to as the reaction low and this can now be used as your lower boundary of the trading range. Now, you want to wait for the security to make a 50% retracement back into the middle of the range and then initiate the butterfly.
News Announcements
Remember, you want the security to stay within a trading range. That means that you need to make sure there are no news announcements or earnings releases due before the expiration of the option. While it will be nearly impossible to avoid news releases in the market, you want to try and avoid major releases such as CPI, GDP, or housing data (especially if you have a butterfly on a housing stock!)
Selecting Time to Expiration
Typically, butterflies are most effective when initiated with expirations between 1 and 2 months out. You do not want to allow too much time for the stock to break through the trading range so less is more in this situation. Additionally, time decay, or theta, will be greater since the option is closer to expiration. That will bode well considering the two short ATM calls that are involved in this strategy.
Butterfly Example
Let's look at a real life example of a butterfly spread so you can get a better idea of how it works. We are going to work with an example using Freddie Mac (FRE). The stock has recently spiked down on gigantic volume and this put the base in of the trading range. As mentioned above, the rally following the bottom usually sets up the top of the trading range. Reviewing the graph below, you can see that FRE has setup a range between $25 and $35 and it is currently trading right near the middle of that range, at $29.58.